IT in the Next Year
It is said that one web year is the equivalent of just two or three calendar months. Therefore, crystal ball gazing about the IT scenario in the next year, at best, can only offer glimmerings. Glimmerings that include Net access, ISP wars, Java, Linux, E-mail, Net Telephony, Security, E-commerce, ERP and the Portal battles for eyeballs…
I touch upon a few favourites:
E-mail will be the universal, de-facto method of communication. For business and for personal use. An e-mail id is going to be more valuable than a telephone or fax number.
Software (and services) that support and enhance this mode of communication will flourish. More and more organizations will take advantage of e-mail power to reduce communication costs and to improve the speed of response to their clients and business associates. Coupled with the corporate website, e-mail will be the modern way to do business for an organization.
On the flip side, there is a very real threat of enormous amounts of junk e-mail - wasting mailbox space, a recipient’s time and money and precious bandwidth on the Internet. By the same token, there will be movement towards acceptably using this fantastic mode of communication as an extremely cost-effective marketing tool.
Java
The “Write once, run anywhere” technology is going to be running everywhere. Java Technology has been the fastest adopted technology in the history of the software industry - and I see this growth continuing in the next year!
Java will make inroads into the corporate world. The various experimental APIs that have been formulated around standard enterprise requirements will take concrete shape. Indeed the Enterprise API Suite (as it is now called) will be instrumental in the acceptance of Java into very large, technology-dependent organizations.
The Java Virtual Machine will be packaged by default with most Operating Systems. Speed and efficiency will be some of the most worked on components thereby reducing the speed advantages that natively compiled code has over equivalent Java based code.
One may expect a fair amount of tie-up’s and technical support partnerships. Standardization, especially with the backing of the IT giants is going to be the key to Java’s omnipresence. The 100% Pure Java initiative will take on greater importance and may soon be crucial for assuring the end-user of a Java product’s standard Java compliance.
Although modern web browsers will keep adding improved Java capabilities, Java will also move strongly into the server-side functionality paradigm (webserver space) in the form of servlets to truly serve the web in a browser-independent manner.
I have backed my beliefs by creating an industry strength mailserver called “PostMaster”. The PostMaster gives you unlimited e-mail ID’s over a single Internet account. We believe this is India’s first 100% Pure Java certified application. Please feel free to download a copy from http://postmaster.co.in
Linux
Linux is my personal favourite operating system. Has been for the past three and a half years - since I first discovered it. I used it while setting up India’s first web based dial-in service (The Virtual Community) and
later Linux had a brush with history when we did the Miss World 1996 website (the first time in the history of the beauty pageant)
Time has passed and the world’s view of Linux has changed. In the next year, I see this as becoming the operating system of choice for more and more organizations. Linux is probably the only really serious threat to Microsoft. And amongst Unix users, it is also very serious competition to other commercial Unices.
With a performance to cost ratio that would be hard (if not impossible) to beat, in the hands of a skilled technician Linux is a formidable OS.
One can also expect a lot of good work on graphical user interfaces which are kind of lacking in this otherwise excellent OS. The ease of use that these would offer will help to push Linux onto even more desktops…
Big names that previously wrote code for very specific (and commercial) platforms will release Linux ports. The already visible investments into Linux are by Intel, Oracle, Netscape, and Corel
And as far as the web goes, Linux is probably going to power more of the World Wide Web than most people imagine!
Security
With the ever-increasing number of online users, privacy and security will be big-ticket issues in the coming year.
The legal industry will find itself under pressure to adapt to include the new rules of the cyber-world. There will be attempts to define and formalize the use of e-mail, server logs, etc. as evidence. In the workplace, ugly issues like “Is the organization allowed to
monitor the employee’s e-mail?” will have to be resolved.
On the Net itself, “cops & robbers” will become a reality. The tribe of crackers will grow. As a consequence, formal bodies to monitor and secure the Internet (or at least parts of it) will be formed. Firewalls, encryption and other security related software will flourish. And security experts will be in demand.
In summary, the demand for private and secure communications will increase manifold. Right from ordinary e-mail to online commerce.
Internet Access
The cyber-universe is going to expand as Net access becomes easier and cheaper worldwide. User interactions with each other or with the web itself are going to be amazingly cute experiences as new technologies converge around the Internet.
As far as ISPs go, the client will be king. For a short while, the primary differentiator for success will be price. As time passes however, most pricing will settle down into similar ranges - and then the reason for choosing an ISP will be based on reliability, features and service.
Closer home (India), we can expect a fair amount of action. I personally think that it will take the private players at least a year to shorten the lead that a VSNL now has in this race. One very good fallout of this entire race will be the creation of an “Indian Internet”. Carefully planned, a good domestic network could do wonders to enhance communications and services within India.
Okay, I guess that is about it from me. If some of the above does not happen, remember, it should have… :-)
(Published in: PC Quest, Jan 1999)